Werder Bremen at 4.02? The market is slowly waking up to this one. Upset incoming.

Total set at 2.50 and the under is being backed, not drifted. Low-scoring football is beautiful football - taking under 2.50 at 1.94.

Total set at 2.50 and the under is being backed, not drifted. Low-scoring football is beautiful football - taking under 2.50 at 1.88.

Price on Fc Kulykiv-bilka has shortened from 2.41 - the smart money is moving and there is still value left.

Asian total of 3.25 at 1.82, with the goals market shortening. I would rather take the Asian line than the flat 2.5 here - no wasted stake if it lands right on the number.

Stjoerdals Blink in my golden 2.00-2.15 band. These are the coin flips that pay long term.

Two defensive-minded coaches, one cagey affair. Under 2.5 is the read.

Price on Viktoriya Sumy has shortened from 2.28 - the smart money is moving and there is still value left.

Gornik Zabrze has been backed from 1.95 into 1.93 at home. Short price, heavy stake, cold blood - this is exactly the kind of banker that keeps the bankroll compounding.

Line sits at -0.25 and the 1X2 price on Fc Kulykiv-bilka is shortening at the same time - the handicap and the match odds are telling the same story. That agreement is the only thing I bet on.

Don't ask me for the spreadsheet - the gut says what the gut says. Lucky pick of the day!

The bookies have hung the total up at 3.25 and the goals price is not drifting - they are expecting fireworks here and I am just buying a ticket to the show. Over 3.25 at 1.80.

Three goals in this one, minimum. Over 2.5 all day.

Weekend football, straightforward favourite. That's the whole system and it works.

The bookies have hung the total up at 4.50 and the goals price is not drifting - they are expecting fireworks here and I am just buying a ticket to the show. Over 4.50 at 2.18.

74% of the money matched on the exchange is sitting on St. Pauli, and the bookmaker price has already come in from 1.91 to 1.85. The exchange has not caught up yet, so there is still room left in this one. I follow the money, not the form table.

88% of the money matched on the exchange is sitting on Freiburg, and the bookmaker price has already come in from 1.93 to 1.91. The exchange has not caught up yet, so there is still room left in this one. I follow the money, not the form table.